No Escape

Neither the EU nor the UK government can deliver Brexit. That is because the UK cannot just crash out and so, to avoid chaotic breakdown, must get the EU’s agreement. Meanwhile, the EU cannot agree to an arrangement that would harm both the Union itself, its member states and their citizens by losing their rights to free movement in respect of the UK; the UK’s contribution to the EU budget etc. So it is a stalemate that neither can resolve. Both will be tempted to play the long game moving into a temporary arrangement under which the EU continues to benefit from the UK’s contribution etc. and the UK gets formally to leave the EU. However, as there is no resolution to the stalemate that will become the new and permanent status quo. That is the worst possible outcome for the UK and would leave us with less sovereignty than we enjoy now. The question is, “Is there an alternative?”. And the answer is, “Only one”. Call the whole exercise off before the UK leaves the EU.

Given that neither the EU or the UK government will want to admit that the UK is a ‘prisoner of the EU’, they will likely let matters drift into limbo with the UK bound into but no longer a member of the EU. And to cover their tracks, both will use Ireland as their cover story. The only means of preventing that outcome lies in the hands of the Brexitiers who can cry betrayal if they like but who should now demand that we call the whole thing off as the only means of protecting the sovereignty that they hold so dears. Come on Davis Davis. You could even make it the basis a bid for the premiership.

 

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